Active Wins

Research

Goldman Sachs - Over-Earning, but Not an Earnings Bubble (18 pages)

Goldman Sachs examines whether S&P 500 profits are in an earnings bubble after a surge driven by AI investment and chip margins. The firm expects earnings growth to decelerate rather than collapse as AI shifts from a capex tailwind to a productivity boost.

S&P Global - Energy disruption and El Niño: Leading to a global food crisis? (16 pages)

S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin and colleagues examine how war in the Middle East is squeezing global agriculture through fertilizer, diesel and biofuel markets. They also explore the sulfur bottleneck and how a strong El Niño could compound the strain on harvests in 2027.

Brookfield - 3Q 2026 Credit Quarterly: New Terms (7 pages)

Brookfield argues higher interest rates look like the new normal, as expected rate cuts have failed to arrive.

Active versus Passive Management of Bonds (and why passive bond management is an oxymoron) (66 pages)

The authors challenge the usual active versus passive investing story by focusing on bond funds. Their core point is that passive bond funds face high trading costs, illiquid benchmarks and weaker diversification benefits, which makes active management more valuable.

What Matters More for Emerging Markets Investors: Economic Growth or EPS Growth? (15 pages)

The authors test whether emerging markets investors should care more about GDP growth or corporate earnings growth. Across 15 emerging markets, the paper finds GDP growth is a weak guide to returns, while EPS and dividend growth are much more useful.

Gavekal - On Common Myths (10 pages)

Louis-Vincent Gave explores how the founding myths nations tell themselves shape capital flows. He argues a fading image of the US as a benevolent hegemon could keep foreign savers home, while France increasingly resembles an emerging market.

Bonus Content

The ‘dividend nomads’ investing their way out of the 9-to-5. Link

Stifel’s Tim Opler on the state of biotech in his Q3 2026 market update. Link - Plus another report on how fast China’s biotech sector is evolving. Link

J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest on a remarkable and disturbing 72 hours in AI. Link

Podcasts

Meb’s Corner

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