10/4

Michael Hartnett, Ben Inker, Roger Ibbotson, Jitania Kandhari & More

Author

The Idea Farm
October 04, 2026

The Idea Farm

Sponsored by

Alpha Architect

Research

Jitania Kandhari explores how Europe is shifting from fiscal restraint toward economic security, creating a regional barbell of opportunities. She contrasts recovering Southern economies, defense spending in the North and Eastern Europe's rise as an industrial hub against unresolved structural challenges.

Guido Baltussen, Bart van Vliet and Pim van Vliet - The Cross-Section of Stock Returns before CRSP (37 pages)

Guido Baltussen, Bart van Vliet and Pim van Vliet test equity factors on a new database of U.S. stocks from before CRSP. Value, momentum and low risk premiums hold up across 159 years of data, while size and reversal effects look weak.

Roger Ibbotson and dozens of contributors revisit a century of stock, bond and inflation data behind the classic SBBI study. Topics include equity and bond risk premiums, the long rise and fall of Treasury yields and how large caps compounded at 10.1% a year.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management examines how investors can build portfolios around the AI capital investment boom. It compares today's buildout to railroads and fiber optics, projects $5.5 trillion of AI capex by decade end and flags how AI exposure can spread quietly across asset classes.

GMO argues that a surge in new equity supply, rather than disappointing fundamentals, could be what finally deflates the AI boom. The authors look at a wave of mega IPOs and a market where only about 30% of invested dollars trade opportunistically.

Bonus Content

BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak finds young generations are ahead financially, despite the angst. Link

What’s behind the declining trend unemployment rate? Link

Apollo's Torsten Slok published a chartbook covering recent rates volatility and what it means for credit. Link

Carta's latest VC fund performance report shows late 2010s vintages still waiting on distributions. Link

VenCap's David Clark explains why scale-up investing behaves like venture and rewards manager selection. Link

When portfolios get messy, change can feel impossible

Over time, portfolios can become difficult to manage. Overlapping positions, embedded gains, and tax constraints often make change feel out of reach.

A Section 351 exchange may offer a different path. It may allow investors to consolidate their qualifying holdings into a single ETF and access professional management services, all without triggering capital gains at the time of exchange, if specific rules and tests are met.

Alpha Architect has supported multiple 351 exchange launches and worked with advisors navigating these exact challenges. That experience is now available through the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center, a dedicated hub featuring short videos, visual walkthroughs, and practical resources designed to help investors stay informed on the latest 351 exchange insights.

To learn more about 351 exchanges and their various portfolio applications, visit funds.alphaarchitect.com/351educationcenter.

Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors.

Podcasts

9/28/2026 - 60 minutes

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett breaks down what could end the Mag 7's run, why bonds are the real threat to the AI trade, and his contrarian case for China, small caps and real estate.