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+ Henry McVey, Jim Grant, Tyler Cowen, Bain on PE, Goldman Sachs & More

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The Idea Farm
June 14, 2026

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“We must avoid a situation where every business venture becomes largely a speculation on the future of monetary policy.”

— Henry Simons

Research

Bain examines why private equity’s expected rebound has stalled again despite open debt markets, available dry powder, and resilient public equities. AI disruption, weak exits, and stretched holding periods have made operational execution more important as deal math gets tougher.

Henry McVey’s mid-year outlook examines a global economy splitting between capital rich growth engines and capital starved sectors. He argues productivity, AI infrastructure, national security, and sticky inflation are reshaping asset allocation, with investors pushed toward quality, nominal GDP linked assets, and more exposure to Asia.

EY’s annual biotech report is a must-read. It examines how biotechnology companies are balancing strong industry fundamentals against financing constraints, policy uncertainty, patent expirations, and increasing competition.

As of June 9, 2026

AllianceBernstein argues mega cap IPO issuance may raise volatility, while commodities, TIPS and real assets deserve larger strategic roles as inflation volatility and supply chain risks rise.

Allspring argues that emerging markets may be entering a new era after a decade of relative underperformance, supported by AI infrastructure, manufacturing strength, and attractive valuations. They note that EM equities currently trade at discounts exceeding 40% relative to U.S. markets.

Do poor economies grow faster than rich economies? Goldman Sachs tries to answer that question by reviewing the performance of GDP per capita across 121 developed and emerging market economies since 1980.

As of June 1, 2026.

Bonus Content

University endowments are about to strike it big on the SpaceX IPO. Link

Benedict Evans wrote a thoughtful post on why it’s probably impossible to predict what jobs will and won’t be disrupted by AI. Link

Expanding on his conversation with Meb last month, William Goetzmann explains why stock bubbles are very rare. Link

When the AI bubble bursts, don’t count on the US consumer. Link

The OECD updated their economic outlook as of June. Link

Shared exposure to AI and global energy dynamics are reducing regional differentiation, forcing investors to reassess where true diversification can still be found. Link

Why Endowments Stopped Investing Like Everyone Else

In the 1980s, David Swensen took over Yale's endowment — a conventional portfolio of stocks and bonds. He asked a simple question: Why are we investing like everybody else?

So he did something radical. He moved a huge chunk of the endowment into private markets — private equity, venture capital, real estate. Assets that were illiquid, but offered improved returns less correlated with public market swings. Over the next few decades, Yale's endowment became the envy of the financial world.

The catch? That playbook has always been available to institutions. Just not to you.

Until now. Ivy Invest gives individual investors access to the same private market
opportunities that endowments and family offices have used to build wealth for
generations. Start with as little as $1,000.

Before investing, carefully consider the investment objective, risks, charges and
expenses of the Institutional Investment Strategy Fund. The prospectus contains this and other information. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Learn more at ivyinvest.co

Podcasts

5/19/2026 - 83 minutes

Novaria Group’s Bryan Perkins discusses building a $2.2B aerospace manufacturer, rolling up niche parts businesses and lessons from studying TransDigm.

6/9/2026 - 59 minutes

Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok discuss AI’s impact on jobs, the drivers of economic growth and how technology could reshape productivity.

Meb’s Corner

6/12/2026 - 68 minutes

Jim Grant discusses the AI boom, similarities to past market bubbles and why financial history remains relevant for investors.