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- A Crude Awakening
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“Inflation hasn't ruined everything. A dime can still be used as a screwdriver.”
Research
The UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook offers a comprehensive record of long-term performance across stocks, bonds, bills, currencies, and other asset classes, tracing developments back to 1900.
McKinsey examines the arc of US competitiveness and what led it to become the world’s leading economic power over the past 250 years.
Jim Reid puts the oil move in historical context, explains what history tells us about the impact of AI and disruption, and gives an update on market performance in 2026.
McKinsey & Company - 2026 M&A Trends (166 pages)
After dealmaking slowed momentarily in early 2025, global M&A activity had a strong finish to the year. Deal value finished the year up 43% to $4.7 trillion, 20% higher than the ten-year average of $3.9 trillion.
Source: McKinsey & Company. As of January 2026.
Interest rate cuts, aging dry powder, and ripe conditions for large public-to-private deals lifted buyout value 44% to $904 billion. Exit value jumped 47% to $717 billion, propelled by a corporate M&A boom and the growing need to generate liquidity for investors. These totals were the second best in the industry’s history behind 2021.
Carlyle - A crude awakening (8 pages)
Jeff Currie examines how a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect global energy security, commodity markets, and capital allocation during an incomplete energy transition.
"In the 1970s, energy equities at 25% of the S&P provided a natural portfolio hedge — as oil rose, energy stocks rose with it, partially insulating diversified investors. At 3%, that internal offset has all but vanished."
Bonus Content
Dan Benton refreshed his rules for technology investing. Link
Who is the largest landowner in your state? Link
The OECD published the 2026 global debt report on the $109 trillion global sovereign and corporate bond markets. Link
The managers of Oregon’s $100 billion pension fund ignored expert guidance and lost big. Link
Jeff Ptak explains what myths and misconceptions about stocks’ recent and longer-term performance we can learn from the chart below. Link
Podcasts
 11/6/2025 - 63 minutes | Todd Moenster, a former B-2 pilot, walks through his experience flying the B-2, what’s required to handle long missions, personal stories of operational incidents, and more. |
 2/23/2026 - 56 minutes | Craib delves into the intricacies of NumeraI, exploring its operational model and the role of the Numeraire token, crowdsourcing investment strategies, real-world alpha signals, and more. |
 2/9/2026 - 32 minutes | Ed Conway warns the UK must protect chemical manufacturing, manage high energy costs, and address supply chain risks from losing “boring” industries. Here is the documentary he mentions (which is great). |
What Else Is Happening - Tax Aware
 3/13/2026 - 59 minutes | Alpha Architect’s Wes Gray and Brent Sullivan discuss concentrated stock positions, 351 ETF exchanges, and more. |
Brent Sullivan explains how Section 351 ETF seeding allows concentrated stockholders to diversify while deferring capital gains taxes. It notes the strategy is growing quickly, but certain engineered transaction patterns can attract IRS scrutiny.