- The Idea Farm
- Posts
- AI's Civil War
“You can't learn enough about financial history if you run a business because everybody if I hear the word unprecedented one more time, I'm going to puke.”
Research
Apollo - Does the Foundation Still Support the Structure? Why a Portfolio Rebalance Makes Sense Now (11 pages)
Apollo argues that strong public equity levels may mask weaker portfolio foundations, including thinner risk compensation, tighter credit spreads, higher concentration, and weaker stock bond diversification. They frame private markets as a potential tool for rebalancing portfolios before volatility forces action.
Ilya Strebulaev & the World Economic Forum examine how venture capital’s liquidity model, global scale up gaps, and AI driven capital needs are reshaping innovation finance. VC backed companies remain central to growth, but nearly $3 trillion of unrealized value is now sitting inside fund balance sheets.
As of February 20, 2026
As of February 20, 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave argues that China’s equity bull market remains intact, but increasingly fragmented across sectors and styles. Momentum has shifted toward AI hardware, industrials, materials, banks, and high dividend payers, while internet platforms, consumer names, and property remain laggards.
As of May 14, 2026
Citadel - The Economics of Intelligence (18 pages)
Citadel argues that AI may be less about replacing labor and more about expanding demand for compute, power, infrastructure, and skilled workers. They push back against the displacement narrative, noting that software job postings are up 18% since May 2025.
Goldman Sachs studies four decades of worker level data to assess how technology driven job displacement affects employment, wages, wealth, and household formation. The findings suggest AI related displacement could create lasting costs, especially if job losses occur during a recession.
As of April 6, 2026
As of April 6, 2026
Deutsche Bank argues that rising defense spending will lower global savings, shrink current account surpluses, and reduce capital recycling into the U.S. They expect this shift to pressure the dollar as Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East redirect savings toward strategic autonomy.
As of May 12, 2026
Morgan Stanley - Bayes and Base Rates 2.0 (10 pages)
Michael Mauboussin revisits base rates for high growth companies, using OpenAI’s revenue forecasts as the central case study. He finds that OpenAI’s projected growth would be unprecedented among comparable U.S. public companies since 1950, even after considering inflation, sector mix, and AI’s unusual adoption speed.
As of May 13, 2026
Bonus Content
J.P. Morgan published their latest Guide to Alternatives for 2Q 2026. Link
Stifel’s Tim Opler shared his latest update on the biopharma market. Link
Morningstar published their 2026 US fund fee study. Link
Tech analyst Benedict Evans updated his report, AI eats the world (79 slides, lots of charts). Link
In the first quarter of 2026, dividend ETFs attracted nearly $22 billion on a net basis, the most since the second quarter of 2022. Link
Podcasts
 4/30/2026 - 34 minutes | Ray Dalio discusses geopolitical instability, rising inflation and U.S. debt, and how investors can think about today’s shifting world order. |
 4/14/2026 - 38 minutes | Seth Godin explains how brands can build trust, stand out in crowded markets, and use AI without losing authenticity. |
Meb’s Corner
 5/22/2026 - 42 minutes | Meb Faber makes the case against home country bias, explains shareholder yield and discusses tax alpha’s role in investor outcomes. |
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