Betting Against America

Research

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - Semiquincententacles (44 pages)

Michael Cembalest examines whether the increasingly popular “Sell America” thesis is supported by the evidence as the U.S. approaches its 250th anniversary. He argues that many expectations of U.S. decline remain difficult to reconcile with current data.

Quantica Capital - Quarterly Insights: Chasing Trends or Chasing Performance? (13 pages)

Quantica Capital examines whether investors can improve trend following results by dynamically allocating capital across asset classes based on recent performance. They find that performance chasing often reduces the benefits of diversification and can leave investors worse off than maintaining a consistent exposure to trend opportunities.

Hoover Institution - Artificial Intelligence and Global Security (16 pages)

Niall Ferguson examines how competition among leading AI firms and between the U.S. and China is creating two simultaneous AI races with limited oversight. Drawing on Cold War history, he argues that unmanaged competition could create unintended risks and make international cooperation increasingly important.

AllianceBernstein - Who Should Own AI? An Open Letter  (6 pages)

AI’s economic gains raise urgent questions about ownership, inequality and corporate power. Proposals for public stakes, taxation or regulation reflect concern that AI could deepen wealth concentration, weaken labor and shift power from governments to mega-cap firms. For investors, equities remain attractive, but rising fragility and political backlash may increase market volatility.

Morgan Stanley - Opportunities and Expectations: The Present Value of Growth Opportunities in Valuation (16 pages)

Michael Mauboussin examines PVGO, a way to estimate how much of a stock’s price reflects future value creation versus current earnings power. PVGO averaged 35% of S&P 500 price from 1961 to 2025, and lower PVGO levels were generally followed by stronger returns.

Bonus Content

Henry Kravis, co-founder & co-executive chairman of KKR, discusses leadership, entrepreneurship, and the evolution of global private markets (58 minutes). Link

The stock market is starting to expand again after years of shrinking, and potentially at a scale not seen since the dot-com era. Link

Owen Lamont: Investors may see a rising earnings (E) as a justification for rising Price (P), which then mechanically feeds into rising E. Link

CAIA’s US endowment study covers the asset allocation, risk, and risk-adjusted returns for the top 17 endowments. Link

AllianceBernstein says the early signs of a new chapter for value stocks are becoming harder to ignore. Link

Bloomberg wrote about the TSMC-fueled AI frenzy in Taiwan. Link

Podcasts

Meb’s Corner

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