Bonds Rule Everything

+ Deutsche Bank, Fisher Investments, Meketa, PitchBook & More

Author

The Idea Farm
September 13, 2026

“The Federal Reserve is the most dangerous financial institution on the face of the earth.”

— Jim Grant

Research

Deutsche Bank - The Home Straight…. (78 pages)

Deutsche Bank's monthly chartbook argues the global bond sell-off is a continuation of normalization rather than a red flag, while previewing Fed and ECB rate debates, midterm election odds, and an AI capex boom now dwarfing the rest of the S&P 500.

Despite market volatility, geopolitical risks, and bifurcated investor sentiment, the bull market is expected to continue into 2027 driven by steady economic growth and widening market breadth.

The paper finds short-term divergences between REITs and private real estate can present tactical opportunities and argues REITs should complement private real estate.

Meketa Investment Group examines “right-tail” investing, where a small minority of companies drives most long-run wealth creation. They suggest that investors are better served by broad exposure and letting winners compound than trying to select them, while private markets require deliberate diversification, access, and patience to capture similar asymmetry.

The authors examine whether executives below the top profit from employer stock trades that avoid public disclosure. Norwegian records from 1997 through 2014 show one month abnormal returns of 68 to 101 basis points, while unrelated stock purchases lose 94 to 116 basis points.

Figure 1: Return to trading by executives below the top.

Bonus Content

Are inflation-fighting bonds on sale? Link

D.A. Wallach on the rise of anticapitalist capitalism. Link

PitchBook’s latest US VC fundraising and returns report. Link

Morningstar covers the 150 largest fund families in the US. Link

Morningstar’s update on the catastrophe bond fund landscape. Link

A $40 billion ETF shuffle helps foreign investors dodge US taxes. Link

When portfolios get messy, change can feel impossible

Over time, portfolios can become difficult to manage. Overlapping positions, embedded gains, and tax constraints often make change feel out of reach.

A Section 351 exchange may offer a different path. It may allow investors to consolidate their qualifying holdings into a single ETF and access professional management services, all without triggering capital gains at the time of exchange, if specific rules and tests are met.

Alpha Architect has supported multiple 351 exchange launches and worked with advisors navigating these exact challenges. That experience is now available through the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center, a dedicated hub featuring short videos, visual walkthroughs, and practical resources designed to help investors stay informed on the latest 351 exchange insights.

To learn more about 351 exchanges and their various portfolio applications, visit funds.alphaarchitect.com/351educationcenter.

Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors.

Podcasts

9/1/2026 - 54 minutes

UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi discusses portfolio construction, AI-driven investment opportunities and bottlenecks, and hidden correlations across traditional asset classes.

8/17/2026 - 38 minutes

Sandy Nairn and Michael O’Connell discuss shareholder wealth creation, historical equity returns and what financial history can tell investors.

Meb’s Corner

9/11/2026 - 50 minutes

Robin Wigglesworth touches on the hidden plumbing of the bond market, the history and evolution of sovereign debt, and the rise of private credit and liquidity risks.