Mom's 401(k)

Research

Hendrik Bessembinder - One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets (25 pages)

Bessembinder updated his long term stock market study to now cover 100 years, 1926 to 2025. He finds the degree to which wealth creation is concentrated in a few firms has increased sharply in recent years.

The HALO effect: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence in the AI era (19 pages)

After more than a decade of under‑investment (particularly in Europe), Goldman Sachs Research analysts believe that higher real yields, geopolitical fragmentation, and supply chain rewiring have shifted equity leadership back toward tangible productive assets. They introduce the "HALO" framework—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence—to identify companies that are less exposed to technological obsolescence.

Pandora’s Bog: the global energy shock of 2026 (13 pages)

Michael Cembalest walks through the aftershocks of the invasion of Iran for investors. He covers the latest developments in commodity markets, the magnitude of the oil shock vs history, the impact of such shocks on equity markets, and more. He also wrote a brief note explaining the best way to think about oil & gas shocks by country.

Carta - VC Fund Performance Q4 2025 (28 pages)

Carta’s flagship report on the state of venture capital & startups explains when it comes to value creation, the best-performing venture funds of the past decade are running away from the competition.

Should Mom Have Private Equity in Her 401K? (25 pages)

Harvard Business School explains why putting private equity inside a 401(k) may deliver less benefit than the marketing suggests once fees, illiquidity, and weak performance persistence are considered. It proposes a simpler alternative of listed private equity exposure to capture industry economics with daily liquidity.

Fisher Investments - Macro Insights Q1 2026 (71 pages)

Fisher Investments argues the bull market can keep running in 2026 despite elevated sentiment and tariff noise. The deck (lots of charts) leans on solid corporate fundamentals, improving non US leadership, and a backdrop that looks late cycle but not euphoric.

Orbis Investments - Emerging Markets: The Map Is Not the Terrain (18 pages)

Orbis argues the old emerging markets playbook no longer applies to the world today. They highlight cheaper valuations, improving reforms, and a broader opportunity set than headline narratives suggest.

Bonus Content

Morningstar’s annual report says the target-date fund industry reached $4.8 trillion in assets last year, while fees reached historic lows. Link

UBS’ Paul Donovan says the rise of the side hustle complicates the modern economy. Link

"In gold terms, the S&P 500 trades at a 70% discount to tech bubble highs." - Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. Link

Brent Sullivan created a database of ETFs seeded in-kind via Section 351 by individuals, and estimates 59 funds with $12.8 billion in AUM have launched since 2022. Link

Thomas Reiner gives an update on quarterly stock-based compensation and dilution analytics (Link). He also created a stock based compensation and dilution tracker dashboard, which includes quarterly dilution analytics and leadership rankings. Link

Podcasts

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