The Idea Farm
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Outlook Season

Outlook Season

+ Goldman Sachs' 2026 Outlook, Cliff Asness, Sir Chris Hohn, Aswath Damodaran & More

The Idea Farm
November 23, 2025

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“Americans are getting stronger. Twenty years ago, it took two people to carry ten dollars' worth of groceries. Today, a five-year-old can do it.”

— Henny Youngman

Research

Goldman Sachs - Building Long-Term Returns: Our 10-Year Forecasts (31 pages)

Peter Oppenheimer projects global equities can deliver about 7.7% annual returns over the next decade, driven mainly by earnings growth and dividends. He also highlights richer long run opportunities in emerging markets and Asia, especially if the dollar weakens and AI benefits prove broad based.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. As of November 13, 2025. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. There is no guarantee any estimates or forecasts will be realized.

Federal Reserve Bank - What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy (25 pages)

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists study tariff shocks over 150 years to estimate their macroeconomic effects. They find tariff increases act like negative demand shocks, raising unemployment, lowering inflation, and behaving similarly across the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.

Notes: Changes in tariffs are innovations to tariffs after projecting on two lags of tariffs, unemployment and inflation. Changes in inflation are innovations to inflation after projecting on two lags of tariffs, unemployment and inflation.

Bonus Content - Long-Run Return Expectations

AQR’s Antti Ilmanen published a series of 10 papers, which attempts to understand how investors actually form long-run return expectations. He covers:

The conflict between contrarian objective expected returns (based on yields) and extrapolative subjective expectations (based on recent past returns),
The difference in how investors form long-run expectations in equity and bond markets.
What drives the love/hate relationship between investors and diversifiers.

Meb’s latest podcast is with Antti covering the entire series. Apple | Spotify | YouTube

Here are all ten papers:

How Do Investors Form Long-Run Return Expectations? (16 pages)

As of April 28, 2025

Exceptional Expectations: U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities (12 pages)

As of May 9, 2025

Why Are Bond Investors Contrarian While Equity Investors Extrapolate? (15 pages)

How Did We Get Here? A Brief History of Expected Returns Formation (16 pages)

Equity Market Focus: Interrogating the Historical Data (12 pages)

As of July 10, 2025. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. There is no guarantee any estimates or forecasts will be realized.

Equity Market Focus: Objective Expected Returns (17 pages)

As of July 31, 2025. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Equity Market Focus: Subjective Expected Returns (16 pages)

As of August 21, 2025. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Bond Market Focus Understanding Treasury Yields with Survey Data (9 pages)

Bond Market Focus: Yield Curves and Mean Reverting Rate Expectations (14 pages)

Source: AQR. As of October 7, 2025. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. There is no guarantee any estimates or forecasts will be realized.

Diversifying Alternatives and the Rearview Mirror (13 pages)

As of November 3, 2025

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