The $250 Trillion Portfolio

+ Jared Kushner, Jeffrey Gundlach, Peter Lynch, Aswath Damodaran & More

Author

The Idea Farm
October 19, 2025

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“All Investments carry within them the seeds of their own destruction.”

— Bill Sharpe

Research

Peter Oppenheimer’s team looks at the World Portfolio, which is the sum of all investable assets globally (estimated to be roughly US$250 trillion, or 200% of world GDP). They highlight three current trends:

  1. The equity weight relative to bonds has increased materially since the Great Financial Crisis, but it remains below levels from the 1990s.

  2. Both in equities and bonds the US has accrued a larger weight and is very dominant.

  3. Alternatives such as private markets, Gold and cryptocurrencies have grown relative to public equities and bonds (but remain relatively small).

Note: *Both global equities and private markets exclude real estate. **Global Corporate IG + HY. ***Performance since 2014. Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. As of October 15, 2025.

Richard Ennis and Dan Rasmussen address criticism of their recent private equity paper.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management explores how quantitative factor models can uncover alpha opportunities in European equities despite muted regional growth. GSAM highlights that factor dispersion in Europe is at a decade high, enabling systematic strategies focused on quality, value, and momentum to outperform traditional benchmarks amid wide valuation gaps and low investor positioning.

Excess returns refer to returns over the benchmark.

McKinsey & Company reports that global corporate economic profit reached an all-time high of $4.3 trillion in 2024, rebounding sharply from pandemic-era lows. They find that just 20% of companies captured 90% of total economic profit, underscoring widening performance inequality and the growing strategic importance of scale, capital efficiency, and innovation-led growth.

Source: McKinsey Value Intelligence. As of September 4, 2025. 

Deutsche Bank warns that investors are underestimating the risk of sudden market shocks from escalating geopolitical tensions. They highlight potential flashpoints including Taiwan, NATO-Russia relations, and the South China Sea, arguing that heightened military contact and global nationalism could trigger self-reinforcing risk-off events even without direct conflict.

Schroders notes that U.S. equity markets remain sharply divided, with speculative technology stocks and the “Magnificent Seven” driving gains while most other sectors lag. The summary also highlights record-high valuations across global markets, rising emerging-market multiples, and a historic surge in share buybacks in the UK and Japan.

Analysis based on MSCI USA, MSCI Europe ex UIK, MSCI UK, MSCI Japan, MSCI EM. Data to 30 September 2025. Source: LSEG Datastream, MSCI and Schroders.

Bonus Content

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS CIO & Global Head of Equities, shares an update on her 10 AI views. Link

Cambria makes the case for a U.S. equal weight approach. Link

Henry Neville touches on inflation, valuations and sentiment. Link

Given Jerome Powell’s recent comment that US equities are “fairly highly valued,” Professor Aswath Damodaran examines whether markets are overpriced, and if so, whether action is warranted. Link

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Podcasts

9/29/2025 - 34 minutes

Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the economic impacts of artificial intelligence, the path forward for monetary policy, fixed income markets, and broader asset allocation.

10/3/2025 - 56 minutes

Peter Lynch’s investing journey highlights his “invest in what you know” philosophy, focus on fundamentals, and disciplined approach to long-term success.

9/15/2025 - 58 minutes

Jared Kushner talks about founding Affinity Partners, lessons from public service, and his perspective on global investing opportunities.

What Else Is Happening

10/17/2025 - 64 minutes

Carl Richards shares insights on improving financial decision-making, overcoming behavioral biases, and developing a healthier relationship with money.