- The Idea Farm
- Posts
- A Broadening Bull
A Broadening Bull
+ Scott Bessent, Ricky Sandler, Peter Oppenheimer, Louis-Vincent Gave & More
The Idea Farm
January 04, 2026
“The desire to perform all the time is usually a barrier to performing over time.”
Research
Deutsche Bank highlights themes corporates will have to handle in 2026 as they trade safety for action to demonstrate they can grow faster than their peers. They note this will be a serious challenge for the roughly one-third of large, listed US and European companies that do not currently cover their cost of capital.
UBS maps how global household wealth has evolved and where it is headed next, highlighting rising Everyday Millionaires, shifting regional leadership and an expected wealth transfer of about $83 trillion that will reshape who controls assets and how portfolios are built.
Marquette Associates - Small Caps: Unprofitables Lead, Active Managers Lag, But Can it Last? (6 pages)
Marquette Associates reviews how the 2025 small cap rally has been led by unprofitable, speculative companies while quality names lag. They explain that this factor backdrop naturally hurts active managers but argue that, over time, fundamentals and refinancing pressures tend to favor profitable, higher quality small caps.
Source: FactSet as of November 14, 2025
Source: Bloomberg, Glenmede as of September 30, 2025
Peter Oppenheimer remains constructive on equities for 2026 as earnings continue to grow, but forecasts lower index returns than in 2025, amid a broadening bull market. He expects moderate gains of around 15% and a shift from narrow megacap technology leadership toward broader participation across regions, sectors and styles.
As of December 18, 2025.
As of December 18, 2025.
Schroders explores how artificial intelligence could either fuel a powerful boom or end in a bubble that tips the economy toward recession. They outline two scenarios, AI Boom and AI Bust, to show how investment, jobs, inflation and policy might evolve under each path.
Source: Schroders Economics Group. 6 November 2025. ¹Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
Bonus Content
Once upon a time, progress meant a tangible conquest of necessity—something that could be seen, held, and mended. Anthony Deden says things have changed. Link
Morningstar published a special report on the future of oil through 2050. Link
a16z wrote a two-part report on the US natural gas industry that’s powering Artificial Intelligence. Part I, Part II
Hedge funds call this psychologist when their traders start losing. Link
New research uncovers the math behind stock returns and warns investors to prepare for a jolt. Link
Podcasts
 12/15/2025 - 56 minutes | Louis-Vincent Gave discusses Japan’s resurgence, China’s challenges, portfolio positioning in a deglobalizing world. |
 12/22/2025 - 56 minutes | Scott Bessent outlines proposals to reform the Federal Reserve, argues for strategic tariffs, and assesses U.S. competitiveness amid geopolitical shifts. |
 12/19/2025 - 56 minutes | Ricky Sandler explains investing through perception shifts, navigating market cycles, and building resilient portfolios. |
What Else Is Happening
 1/2/2026 - 68 minutes | Cullen Roche walks through the principles of portfolio construction, why real returns are what matter, and the origins of the 60/40 portfolio. |
Did you miss last week’s email?