A CAPE of 39

Research

AllianceBernstein - Commodities, Real Assets and the Return of the Physical Economy  (32 pages)

AllianceBernstein argues that commodities and industrial metals are becoming more strategically relevant as geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and resource nationalism revive the physical economy. The paper questions whether broad commodity indices are enough, pointing instead toward industrial metals, copper, mining equities, and Latin America.

Fisher Investments - Macro Insights Q2 2026 (29 pages)

Despite recent volatility and geopolitical events, Fisher Investments expects the bull market to continue in 2026. Modest but steady economic growth should provide a fine backdrop for equities, though a correction and high volatility generally shouldn’t be surprising.

HSBC Asset Management - Multi-Asset Insights: Building resilience across regimes and regions (20 pages)

HSBC argues that diversification has become more regime dependent as stock bond hedges, currencies, commodities and EM exposures behave differently across shocks. It pushes investors away from static 60/40 thinking toward dynamic hedging and selective EM allocations tied to AI, metals and external balance resilience.

Sparkline Capital - AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps (12 pages)

Kai Wu examines whether beaten down software stocks are bargains or value traps as AI changes the competitive landscape. He argues traditional valuation can misread disruption, while intangible assets may better separate survivors from firms whose moats are eroding.

Deutsche Bank - Megatrends: AI vs the decade’s structural headwinds (30 pages)

Deutsche Bank uses a new AI powered model to assess how six megatrends may shape economies and markets. The key tension is whether AI driven productivity can offset sovereign deficits, demographics, politics, globalization shifts, and weakening haven assets.

McKinsey & Company - Ramping up manufacturing in America? (61 pages)

McKinsey examines what it would take for the United States to rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity. They find that replacing exposed imports could require about $2 trillion in capital, while existing factory slack would add only $660 billion of output.

S&P Global - U.S. Persistence Scorecard (16 pages)

S&P Dow Jones Indices examines whether active fund outperformance tends to persist or fade. Only 4.5% of above median large cap active equity funds stayed above median through 2025, below the 6.25% rate expected from randomness.

Bonus Content

You can trade (almost) like Paul Mulvaney. Link

Aswath Damodaran shares lessons from Tim Cook’s legacy at Apple. Link

BCG published their 2026 Global Asset Management Report. Link

The FT explains how built the world’s most profitable hedge fund. Link

At today’s Shiller CAPE of 39 for the U.S. market, an analysis found no historical period since 1881 that was followed by attractive long-term real returns. Link

Podcasts

Meb’s Corner

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