- The Idea Farm
- Posts
- Agony & Ecstasy
Agony & Ecstasy
+ Bridgewater, Robeco, Louis-Vincent Gave, Owen Lamont, NEPC, Vanguard & More
The Idea Farm
November 09, 2025
Sponsored by
“The big money in booms is always made first by the public – on paper. And it remains on paper.”
Research
Michael Cembalest first published the ‘Agony & Ecstasy’ analysis in 2004, and the EMEA team released an updated version based on June 2025 data. It explores the risks and rewards of concentrated stock positions, highlighting historical wealth destruction, sector cycles, and strategies for diversification, monetization, and hedging. You can read the most updated version (2024) of Cembalest’s paper here.
Source: FTSE Russell, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, London Stock Exchange. Data as of June 2025.
Man Group says improving access to more of China's uncorrelated markets offers diversification opportunities to global investors as market dispersion increases.
Source: Man Group. As of September 25, 2025.
Robeco examines how to allocate equity styles for absolute versus benchmark-relative goals, demonstrating how factor combinations can be tailored to meet different investment objectives.
Source: Robeco. As of September 22, 2025.
Source: Robeco. As of September 22, 2025.
This CFAI report reframes financial markets as complex adaptive systems, exploring how agent-based modeling and network theory can improve both portfolio management and risk management.
Source: CFA Institute. As of October, 2025.
Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group presents a tax aware multi asset construction framework that optimizes after tax outcomes by modeling income, dividend, and capital gains rates alongside rebalancing frictions.
Source: Vanguard.
William Forde examines the overlap between private equity and U.S. small-cap equities, discussing shrinking public market opportunities, diverging valuations, and how active management can capture value across both segments.
Bonus Content
What does short-term fund performance say about future returns? Link
Bridgewater shared 13 of their 50 best Daily Observations, ranging from 1976 to 2024. Link
Louis-Vincent Gave analyzes the trade-offs of energy-policy decisions, touching on the US, China and coal stocks. Link
Henry Neville believes the top four risks today are AI capital expenditure, fiscal sustainability, private markets and policy volatility. Link
Owen Lamont: “When market prices get dumb, the dumb money gets rich.” Link
As of October, 2025.
Investing in Farmland: Real Assets. Real Returns.
For decades, institutional investors and the world’s wealthiest families have allocated a portion of their portfolios to U.S. farmland. And for good reason. Farmland is one of history’s most resilient and consistent-performing asset classes. It offers true diversification, stable cash flows, low volatility and steady capital appreciation.
Historically inaccessible for all but the world’s largest investors, AcreTrader now provides accredited investors with direct access to investment-grade farmland.
It’s time to diversify beyond the traditional. Protect and grow your principal with a real asset grounded in the bedrock of the global economy. Learn more about investing in farmland with AcreTrader.
Investments in private placements are illiquid, speculative, and may result in the complete loss of capital. Securities offered through NCPS, member FINRA/SIPC.
Podcasts
 11/7/2025 - 62 minutes | Joe Davis discusses the long-term impact of AI on productivity, the implications of rising U.S. debt, and how both forces could shape future economic growth. |
 10/13/2025 - 59 minutes | Mayer & Hagstrom discuss factor investing, portfolio construction, and how investors can manage expectations through different market cycles. |
 10/21/2025 - 56 minutes | Steve Eisman talks with Craig Moffett and Michael Nathanson about Apple’s AI strategy, the collapse of cable and ad agencies, and how AI-driven shifts are reshaping media and employment. |
 2/7/2025 - 26 minutes | In 2015, explorers found a ship that sank in 1708 estimated to have treasure worth billions of dollars. But, who owns it? |
What Else Is Happening
Did you miss last week’s email?
