Beneficiaries of the Boom

+ Daniel Yergin, Adam Posen, Rubio, VC & More

Author

The Idea Farm
February 22, 2026

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“The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.”

— Jesse Livermore

Research

Daniel Yergin’s report analyzes the global outlook for copper supply and demand through 2040. He finds without meaningful expansion of supply, there could be a 10 million metric ton shortfall by 2040.

Michael Mauboussin analyzes firms’ growth forecasts tied to their investment in AI. He explains that base rates for U.S. public companies over the past 75 years suggest that OpenAI and Oracle Cloud have a low probability of achieving their five-year revenue projections.

Kathryn Kaminski analyzes how trend following strategies performed in 2025. She explains the dispersion in returns among managers underscored the idiosyncratic nature of system design choices (such as trend speed, market selection, and volatility adjustment) in navigating turbulent environments.

With data current as of January 1, 2026, AngelList provides a comprehensive performance data for 2024-vintage funds, which show stronger TVPI than recent vintages.

As of February 10, 2025.

As of February 10, 2025.

Kai Wu believe we are now approaching the “adoption phase” of the boom, a period during which early adopters of AI will begin to separate from their laggard peers on the back of tangible AI-driven gains. Based on this, he suggests focusing on these early adopters, which offer AI exposure without the elevated valuations and capital spending of the AI infrastructure stocks that now dominate the S&P 500.

Bonus Content

While AI is tech, not all tech is AI, and tech-heavy indices fall short of capturing the full spectrum of AI beneficiaries. Link

Tim Opler’s latest biopharma market update covers industry sentiment, M&A activity, capital markets & more. Link

Secretary Marco Rubio spoke at the Munich Security Conference about the future of the U.S.–Europe alliance. Watch | Read (29 minutes)

Rohit Yadav’s 'Big Book of Venture Capital' is a year-end deep dive into venture capital and startup dynamics (272 pages). Link

Owen Lamont: “Today’s stock market resembles 1999/2000. If the wave of AI ads at the Super Bowl is followed by a wave of AI IPOs later this year, watch out.” Link

Liberty Street Economics finds that nearly 90% of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers (through November 2025). Link

As of November 30, 2025.

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Podcasts

2/13/2026 - 56 minutes

Posen argues that the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate.

2/10/2026 - 48 minutes

a16z’s David George discusses AI and private tech markets with a focus on the metrics of AI companies that are growing faster than traditional software companies. He refers to charts from the recent a16z report on the state of markets.

1/24/2026 - 44 minutes

Friedland and Currie discuss what the revenge of the miners and the real economy means for commodity prices, along with the transition of traditionally asset-light big tech companies to become asset-heavy. Note: there’s a part II of this episode to find in your feed if you listen to this.

What Else Is Happening