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- Dispersion, Disruption, and the Dollar
Dispersion, Disruption, and the Dollar
+ PIMCO, Goldman Sachs, Gundlach, KKR, Apollo & More
The Idea Farm
April 05, 2026
“The door to the American Millionaire's Club is not locked.”
Research
PIMCO’s latest Cyclical Outlook explores why dispersion is rising and how investors may build resilience through quality, liquidity, and diversification.
Deutsche Bank explains why the lasting impact of this crisis on the dollar could be the willingness of the world to price traded goods and services in dollars and to save resulting surpluses in dollar assets.
AlphaSimplex examines whether macro managers add value beyond plain equity and trend exposure. It argues some managers may still generate alpha, but survivorship and fee dispersion make the category look cleaner than it really is.
Louis Vincent-Gave argues the energy crisis is exposing how many portfolio and policy assumptions have become outdated. He frames the bigger issue as a shift from trusting financial reserves and open trade to prioritizing physical energy security.
Goldman Sachs explains how the disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz impacts the global nitrogen fertilizer market (which accounts for 60% of global fertilizer use), and why the Middle East conflict underscores the role of commodities as a hedge against supply disruptions.
Stepstone - Private equity house views 2026 (83 pages)
StepStone Group outlines a cautiously improving private equity backdrop for 2026, centered on reopening deal and exit markets. They believe liquidity is still the bottleneck, with about 60% of PE backed companies held for four years or more.
Bonus Content
HELP: Please take a brief survey (5 questions) on the understanding of dividend mechanics.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Guide to the Markets is updated through the end of March 30, 2026. Link
Redpoint’s Logan Bartlett published 69 slides on the state of software and AI. Link
Apollo published 127 slides on the US housing outlook (link) ,a chart book looking at energy demand and supply and the Strait of Hormuz (link) and a brief on software margins (link).
KKR’s Henry McVey says the key takeaway from his recent trip to Japan is it Japan remains one of the more underappreciated opportunities for active ownership. Link
The OECD’s latest economic outlook incorporates the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Link
With the Morningstar US Market Index‘s dividend yield below 1.2% (and ex-US at 2.6%), Morningstar looks at how to avoid dividend traps. Link
Podcasts
 3/27/2026 - 64 minutes | Gundlach walks through the global investment landscape and says his top recommendation is emerging market stocks, and believes we’re in the second inning of foreign outperformance. |
 3/30/2026 - 49 minutes | Kieran Goodwin discusses private credit risks, liquidity mismatches, and how investors may think about dislocations in stressed markets. |
What Else Is Happening
 4/3/2026 - 77 minutes | Owen Lamont and Randy Cohen discuss liquid private equity, public market proxies, and how investors think about concentration and bubbles. |
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