Doing Nothing Wins

+ AllianceBernstein, Goldman Sachs, Hendrik Bessembinder, PIMCO, Bain & More

Author

The Idea Farm
July 12, 2026

“Like all of life's rich emotional experiences, the full flavor of losing important money cannot be conveyed by literature.”

— Fred Schwed

Research

AllianceBernstein’s annual “Book” examines how AI, deglobalization, demographics, debt, and climate change are reshaping long-term investing. They argue U.S. equities remain structurally attractive despite high valuations, while the U.S. dollar faces growing challenges. They also contend investors should rethink traditional asset allocation through a total portfolio approach.

Goldman Sachs examines why commodities remain a valuable portfolio diversifier as geopolitical tensions and structural demand reshape markets. They suggest the Strait of Hormuz disruption reinforces longer-term investment themes, with AI, electrification, defense spending, and grid investment supporting sustained demand for commodities beyond traditional energy.

As of June 28, 2026

Aspect Capital examines whether the conditions that supported the classic 60/40 portfolio are giving way to a new investment regime. They state inflation, deglobalization, and geopolitical instability are weakening stock-bond diversification, increasing the potential role for commodities and trend-following strategies.

As of June 2026

Jim Reid published one of our favorite annual reads: a chartbook that looks at today’s biggest macro and market extremes.

Hendrik Bessembinder’s latest paper evaluates whether investors benefit from simply holding S&P 500 stocks after they leave the index. Using data from 1971–2025, he finds do-nothing portfolios generally matched index returns, while recent mega-cap outperformance and concentrated portfolios appear more exceptional than representative.

Goldman Sachs explores why Japan’s economic revival appears more durable than past cycles. The paper argues governance reforms, policy normalization, and geopolitical shifts are creating lasting investment opportunities, while nearly 50% of Tokyo’s Prime Market companies still trade below book value despite accelerating corporate reforms.

Bonus Content

It’s Mid-Year Outlook season. We have a running list of outlooks, including firms like PIMCO, KKR, Capital Group, Richard Bernstein & more. Link

Bain published their midyear M&A outlook, highlighting that the global M&A market is up 41% in the first 5 months of 2026. Link

The state of the AI economy in 60+ charts. Link

Has the overnight drift in U.S. equity returns disappeared? Link

The AI buildout is bottlenecked by energy. But America has the electricity to power its data centers; the problem is getting it to them. Link

PIMCO says AI may be bond-bullish over the medium term – lowering neutral rates via precautionary savings and improved fiscal expectations – even as it raises longer-run growth potential. Link

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Guide to the Markets is updated through the end of June. Link

As of June 30, 2026

Podcasts

7/7/2026 - 69 minutes

Dr. Gio Valiante gives a masterclass on mental performance and chasing greatness. He explains how to build lasting confidence, overcome fear, and develop a mindset to reach their full potential.

Meb’s Corner

7/10/2026 - 51 minutes

Joseph Moore discusses timeless investing lessons, the evolution of wealth building, and what 300 years of American financial history can teach investors today.