Echoes of 1999

Plus: Big Tech's buybacks are disappearing

Author

The Idea Farm
July 05, 2026

“The impression has built up that the stock market is the cause of booms and busts. Actually, it is the thermometer — not the fever.”

— Bernard Baruch

Research

Scott Rubner examines the technical forces likely to shape markets into the second half of 2026, arguing that retail participation, quarter-end positioning, and seasonal trends are becoming as influential as macro fundamentals. He highlights record retail activity, the largest options expiration in history, and historically strong July seasonality as key drivers of near-term market behavior.

Goldman Sachs explains why easing tensions between the US and Iran have improved the economic outlook despite continued uncertainty in oil markets. The report explores how lower recession risk, resilient AI investment, and moderating consumer spending could shape US growth, while arguing that oil prices remain a risk rather than the base case.

Meketa examines whether the term "unicorn" still has investment value as private markets evolve and AI reshapes venture capital. The unicorn label now encompasses roughly 1,700 companies worth an estimated $8.6 trillion, making it less useful on its own and requiring investors to focus on valuation quality, liquidity, and company fundamentals instead.

Schroders - Distorted Equity Markets: A Generational Opportunity in Quality (6 pages)

Schroders examines how AI disruption fears have distorted global equity markets, creating a divide between AI winners, perceived safe havens, and de-rated quality-growth companies. They compare today’s market concentration to 1999, noting more than $660 billion in hyperscaler data center spending and $1.23 trillion in margin debt.

Man Group examines how cash equities can broaden trend-following beyond equity index futures. They argue that directional sector trend still behaves too much like equity beta, with a 0.81 average rolling correlation to index trend, while cross-sectional sector and style approaches produced much lower correlations and more differentiated drawdown behavior.

Vanguard examines how 25 years of changes in defined contribution plan design have reshaped retirement saving behavior in the U.S. They show automatic enrollment, higher default contribution rates, and professionally managed portfolios have become the primary drivers of stronger retirement outcomes, even as more participants tap their savings to manage short term financial pressures.

Deutsche Bank examines how the S&P 500’s capital allocation picture looks once Big Tech is separated from the rest of the index. While AI spending is pressuring tech cash flows, the broader market shows healthier balance sheets, restrained borrowing, and valuation discounts that may make the fallout from AI disappointment less severe.

Bonus Content

Ulrike Hoffman-Burchardi looks back at three key lessons from America’s great historical capital cycles and applies them to the the trajectory of AI. Link

The age of the solopreneur: more solo founders are growing faster thanks to AI. Link

Apollo published a chartbook on the recent underperformance of the Magnificent 7. Link

Big tech stock buybacks are vanishing as AI spending spree eats up cash. Link

Liberty Street Economics looks at the post‑COVID decline in the labor share. Link

In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns. Link

Podcasts

6/26/2026 - 56 minutes

Django Davidson discusses capital cycle investing, identifying 10-baggers, the opportunity in Japan, and more.

Meb’s Corner

7/3/2026 - 58 minutes

Rebecca Anderson discusses America’s long-term economic growth, AI’s impact on the workforce, and the structural forces shaping future competitiveness.