Fears, Flows & Fundamentals

+ Cliff Asness, Bill Gurley, Pensions, Will Guidara & More

Author

The Idea Farm
April 19, 2026

Sponsored by

“At times of shock, converting illiquid assets to cash to build flexibility is very expensive. Finding an umbrella in a rainstorm might be impossible or very costly.”

— Myron Scholes

Research

AQR argues that a positive stock bond correlation is not a good reason to replace bonds with more equity like assets.

Scott Rubner believes positioning has reset, volatility has compressed, and flows are re-engaging, marking a meaningful shift in the underlying market backdrop.

AllianceBernstein examines how the Iran war and energy shock are testing already fragile equity markets.

In its 24th year, the Pension Review “First Take” analyzes the 50 largest US Defined Benefit plans in the S&P 500 based on asset values.

Deutsche Bank maps the themes that drove markets in Q1 2026 and what they could mean for 2026 and beyond. It sees the near term as more fragile, but the medium term as more constructive as AI and broader fundamentals offset some of the shock.

Bonus Content

PGIM’s quarterly market update has 20 slides of charts and commentary on global markets. Link

Schroders Equity Lens for April highlights a strong earnings forecast despite stagflation risks. Link

Bill Gurley touches on the SaaS reckoning with a reminder that stock-based compensation was never free. Link

Two and a half centuries of technological disruption tell the same story: expect a rough patch, then expect more jobs than before. Link

Vanguard shared 50 facts from 50 years of index investing. Link

Share certificate for the first index mutual fund, later renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund.

When portfolios get messy, change can feel impossible

Over time, portfolios can become difficult to manage. Overlapping positions, embedded gains, and tax constraints often make change feel out of reach.

A Section 351 exchange may offer a different path. It may allow investors to consolidate their qualifying holdings into a single ETF and access professional management services, all without triggering capital gains at the time of exchange, if specific rules and tests are met.

Alpha Architect has supported multiple 351 exchange launches and worked with advisors navigating these exact challenges. That experience is now available through the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center, a dedicated hub featuring short videos, visual walkthroughs, and practical resources designed to help investors stay informed on the latest 351 exchange insights.

To learn more about 351 exchanges and their various portfolio applications, visit funds.alphaarchitect.com/351educationcenter.

Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors.

Podcasts

4/11/26 - 36 minutes

The episode speaks with the author of a recent Fed paper, “A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios,” which discusses stock valuations, free cash flow, and how shifting profit dynamics may be supporting higher equity prices.

3/26/26 - 67 minutes

This is timely with the recent tension between Waymo and NYC. The episode covers bans on driverless cars, labor politics, and how humans handle technological innovation.

What Else Is Happening 

4/17/26 - 52 minutes

Will Guidara discusses customer experience, team empowerment, and how small acts of hospitality can strengthen loyalty.