The Idea Farm
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Semi-Liquid Isn't Liquid

Semi-Liquid Isn't Liquid

+ Satoshi, Boaz Weinstein, Rick Reider, Henry McVey & More

The Idea Farm
April 12, 2026

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“My daughter asked me when she came home from school, "What's the financial crisis?" and I said, it's something that happens every five to seven years.”

— Jamie Dimon

Research

Man Group - Apocalypse Now? (18 pages)

Henry Neville studies nearly 40 conflicts since World War II to ask what war usually does to markets and how investors might hedge it. Equities often recover unless conflict triggers an energy shock or collides with a separate credit event, while gold, oil, yields, and the dollar each react differently.

KKR - Flash Macro Update: U.S. Markets (19 pages)

Henry McVey updates his U.S. market outlook around the Iran conflict, oil, inflation, and private credit repricing. He now expects slower growth, higher headline inflation, and a lower S&P 500 target as energy and geopolitics feed through more directly.

BlackRock - Investing in 2026: AI, the Middle East, and Income (9 pages)

Rick Rieder argues 2026 is being shaped by AI, Middle East risk, and a stronger case for income over broad beta. He highlights historic market dispersion, a roughly 30% software selloff, and a fixed income backdrop where selectivity matters more than passive exposure.

An Index of Commodity Futures Returns Since 1871 (22 pages)

The authors document the returns to a broadly diversified index of commodity futures over more than 150 years of U.S. market history. They find that commodity futures have earned an average annual risk premium of 5.4% over the risk-free rate and a premium over US inflation of more than 6% per annum.

The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries of Evidence (34 pages)

The authors test defensive investing tools across two centuries of global market history, asking what really protects in drawdowns. Traditional defensive equity factors and multi asset mixes, including trend following, look more efficient than relying on gold or put options.

Bonus Content

Bitcoin’s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained hidden for 17 years. A trail of clues — and a year of digging by John Carreyrou — led him to a 55-year-old computer scientist in El Salvador named Adam Back. Read | Listen

Sequoia published Don Valentine's original 1977 memo for the firm’s investment into Apple Computer. Link

What can golf teach us about investing? It’s the steady, consistent performers that win over time. Link

Apollo published their latest outlook for public and private markets (link) and a chart book on gold (link).

“...strong value outperformance occurs during a few distinct periods in history, while during most of the time the spread remains relatively flat. These episodes of value outperformance often follow the bursting of major technology-driven market bubbles, when market leadership shifts away from previously dominant growth companies.” Link

Vontobel discusses the investment merits of listed railroads. Link

A different approach to diversification

Traditional diversifiers do not always behave the way investors hope, especially during periods of rapid equity stress.

The Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF, ticker CAOS, seeks to provide asymmetric returns during fast crashes while targeting net positive returns over the long term.

With equity valuations near all-time highs, historically high government debt levels, and potential inflation looming on the horizon, it may be time to look beyond bonds for diversification.

To learn how CAOS may help diversify your portfolio and for more important information about the Fund, head to funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the funds. This and other important information is in the indicated fund's prospectus, which may be obtained by calling (215) 882-9983 or by visiting https://funds.alphaarchitect.com/documents/. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC.