Financial Repression Returns

+ Russell Napier, Greg Jensen, Rick Rule, Michael Mauboussin & More

Author

The Idea Farm
February 01, 2026

“Ours is not to reason why; Just correctly sell and buy.”

— Walter Deemer

Research

Morgan Stanley - Who Is On the Other Side? (97 pages)

Michael Mauboussin reviews how markets have changed, including flows from active to passive funds, more short-term focus within active, and the rise of retail. He encourages active investors to ask and answer the question, “Who is on the other side?”

Bridgewater - The Macro Implications of the AI Capex Boom (12 pages)

Greg Jensen believes AI capex is set to significantly support US growth in the coming years and many of the second-order consequences of this investment are not priced in.

Source: Bridgewater Associates. As of January 7, 2025.

Source: Bridgewater Associates. As of January 7, 2025.

Goldman Sachs’ Investment Strategy Group expects US resilience to stay intact in 2026, supporting a stay invested posture with a US equity tilt. They views policy noise as real but believes checks and balances still function, so investor discipline matters more than trying to time headlines.

AQR - Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes  (19 pages)

AQR published capital market assumptions for major asset classes with a focus on medium-term expected returns. This year’s article also includes a discussion on currency risk and currency hedging.

Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics and AQR. Estimates as of December 31, 2025.

Source: MSCI and AQR. Weights as of December 31, 2025. The 60% allocation to MSCI ACWI is assumed to be unhedged. The 40% allocation to global bonds is assumed to be hedged.

Apollo argues credit is shifting into a buyers market as supply rises from AI financing and renewed M&A activity. They expect cumulative AI related spending above $2.7 trillion through 2029, making issuer selection and true diversification more valuable.

Data as of December 2025. Source: Bloomberg

Bonus Content

Reminder: Our refreshed website has 20+ annual reports recently published. Link

Adam Posen and Lazard CEO Peter Orszag think inflation could exceed 4% by the end of 2026. Link

Nat Bullard’s annual presentation on the state of decarbonization and energy markets. Link

Schroders Equity Lens for January is your go-to chartbook to global equity markets. This edition highlights the signs of a “healthy” bull market and explains how to hedge against AI risk without selling equities. Link

Long-term winners seldom outperform like clockwork. Instead, investors should focus on funds’ other traits. Link

J.P. Morgan’s year-end Guide to the Markets have been published for EMEA, the UK, Latin America & Asia.

Podcasts

1/15/2026 - 51 minutes

Tyler Rosenlicht talks about the general ideas behind infrastructure investing, how he thinks about the ongoing boom in energy demand, and how grid bottlenecks shift profits across the energy value chain.

1/22/2026 - 118 minutes

Cliff Asness explains how bubbles form, why modern investing increasingly resembles gambling, and what the dot-com era can teach us about today's markets.

1/20/2026 - 60 minutes

Rick Rule explains why he sold most of his silver, what he expects for energy and uranium markets, and how to size commodity exposure.

What Else Is Happening 

1/30/26 - 55 minutes

Napier explains why he believes we’re going through the end of the existing global monetary system, why gold may be signaling what comes next, and his asset allocation advice.