Gold Bugs & Bears

+ Jeffrey Gundlach, Doomberg, Buffett, Henry McVey, Benedict Evans & More

Author

The Idea Farm
November 30, 2025

“Wealth is not a signal of genius. It’s usually a signal of restraint.”

— Nick Maggiulli

Research

Moody’s - Capital Gains Taxes and the Misallocation of Housing (15 pages)

Moody’s Analytics examines how unindexed capital gains exclusions lock many seniors into oversized homes, constraining mobility and supply. The authors estimate nearly 6 million 65 plus households are overhoused.

​Sources: NAR, Moody’s Analytics. As of September 2025.

Henry McVey describes a cautious yet constructive view on Europe, where attractive valuations and underowned markets support risk assets into 2026. He also stresses that slow policy delivery, high energy costs, and uneven reform mean investors must focus on targeted themes and private capital rather than a broad macro upswing.

Data as at October 31, 2025. Source: KKR, OECD.

Man Group explains why gold can still earn a place in portfolios even at record prices. They argue it works best as a diversifier and crisis hedge, not a primary engine of returns.

Source: Bloomberg, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Man Group. The 10-year forward real gold return (y-axis) is the annualised inflation-adjusted return over the subsequent 10 years. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Research Affiliates explores how systematic stop loss rules can reshape the risk profile of alternative strategies. They find thoughtfully calibrated stops can reduce large drawdowns and behavioral stress, even if they slightly lower long term risk adjusted returns.

Does Share Repurchase Legalization Really Harm Corporate Investments? (64 pages)

The authors studied what actually happened when 17 countries legalized buybacks between 1985-2010. The surprise? Overall corporate investment went UP by 8-10%.

  • Yes, the 6.5% of firms that buy back shares (typically older, cash-rich companies) reduce their own investment

  • But the 93.5% of firms that don't repurchase—younger, smaller, growth-oriented companies—INCREASE investment significantly

  • Capital flows from mature firms with limited opportunities to growth firms that need it most

Bonus Content

Morningstar’s quarterly update is full of great visuals covering all asset classes. Link

Since the COVID-19 vaccine announcement, the average value stock has outperformed the average growth stock. Link

Benedict Evans updated his annual presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This version is titled 'AI eats the world’. Link

Warren Buffett published his farewell shareholder letter. Link

Altimeter’s Thomas Reiner shares an update on big tech stock-based compensation, noting “some of the discipline we’ve seen has started to dissipate as we’ve moved deeper into the AI supercycle.” Link

a16z published their 2025 report on the State of Crypto. Link

Source: CoinGecko, a16z. As of October 22, 2025. 

Podcasts

11/14/2025 - 47 minutes

Paul Kedrosky argues AI is a classic bubble, examines capex math and financing structures, and warns about government backstops distorting incentives.

11/17/2025 - 59 minutes

Jeffrey Gundlach explains why most financial assets look expensive, the outlook for bonds, and positioning for recession risk.

11/10/2025 - 70 minutes

Doomberg examines AI-driven electricity demand, oil and natural gas outlook, and where investors may find opportunity across energy infrastructure.

What Else Is Happening