Tariffs Bite Twice

+ Michael Mauboussin, Jeffrey Sherman, Kate Moore, David Booth & More

Author

The Idea Farm
April 26, 2026

“Being a true contrarian means not to go slavishly against the grain, but to be always independent in your thinking.”

— Mark Mobius

Research

Goldman Sachs examines whether recent stress changes the long term case for private credit. They argue private credit is still modest relative to other capital channels and concludes the financing role remains intact.

Citi’s Kate Moore reviews how the Middle East conflict, energy disruption, and tighter policy expectations are reshaping the 2026 market outlook. She still favors U.S. equities and short duration bonds, while warning that tighter financial conditions and slowing growth could pressure markets over the next three to six months.

Michael Mauboussin examines competitive advantage period (CAP) as a neglected driver of equity value. He says investors often focus on growth and margins, but the duration of excess returns may matter just as much, especially when terminal value drives most of a stock’s worth.

Nareit compares REITs with private real estate funds and finds listed real estate has held up better across the return distribution. Using CEM data from 1998 to 2022, it says fee drag is a big divider, with REITs still generating net alpha after costs while private real estate did not.

A new study suggests that the responses of the different components of inflation to tariff changes can reduce inflation by depressing demand in the short run. Over time, however, their findings suggest that tariff increases will be gradually passed through, raising inflation.

Bonus Content

David Booth looks at the miracle of markets and the 100-year dataset that changed the world. Link

KKR’s Henry McVey shares an update on China based on his recent travel. Link

Stanford’s annual AI Index Report has 400+ pages of charts and commentary. Link

Bitwise published their Q1 2026 crypto market review. Link

The IEA published their 2026 Global Energy Review. Link

PitchBook’s Q1 2026 venture monitor reviews the US venture capital ecosystem. Link

Podcasts

4/11/2026 - 36 minutes

Jeffrey Sherman explains how the current geopolitical landscape is impacting markets, the road ahead for monetary policy, and how artificial intelligence is shaping the investment landscape.

4/16/2026 - 56 minutes

Michael Cembalest discusses AI, Treasury market risks, and the charts shaping his macro outlook. Note: Start at 10:50.

What Else Is Happening 

4/24/2026 - 65 minutes

Sam Hartzmark may be the most knowledgeable person on irrational investor behavior related to dividends. Meb & Sam cover: