Alts & AI

Rick Rieder, Michael Cembalest, David Kostin, Richard Bernstein, Jeff Currie, Greg Jensen & More

Author

The Idea Farm
December 14, 2025

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“Wealth is not a signal of genius. It’s usually a signal of restraint.”

— Nick Maggiulli

Research

AQR - Hold the Dip (22 pages)

AQR tests popular buy the dip strategies against simple buy and hold investing in U S equities. They find dip buying usually lags passive exposure, especially in long drawdowns, and argue diversified trend following is a more reliable timing tool.

As of December 1, 2025.

Michael Cembalest examines alternative investments, from slow private equity and venture monetization to crowded hedge funds, booming private credit and pressured commercial real estate. He highlights how abundant liquidity, generous terms and democratization raise hidden risks that might only be revealed in a future downturn.

As of December 2, 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meketa examines equity style investing through the lens of value versus growth, focusing on how each is defined and constructed in major indices. They review long term performance patterns, sector tilts and concentration, then outline practical issues investors face when choosing and implementing value or growth allocations.

For illustrative purposes only, and not a recommendation of any security.

Bridgewater - Google’s Gemini 3 Means AI’s “Resource Grab” Phase Is On (9 pages)

Greg Jensen explains how Google’s Gemini 3 confirms that AI has entered a resource grab phase, sharply increasing demand for compute, chips and power. They argue this arms race will drive a massive capital spending boom and underappreciated near term support for global growth and markets.

Source: Bridgewater Associates. As of December 2, 2025. For illustrative purposes only, and not a recommendation of any security.

Jeff Currie analyzes how the AI compute boom resembles the shale era’s “growth at all costs” cycle. He argues that today’s massive AI capital spending could pressure commodity markets and asset prices if expected efficiencies and revenues arrive slower than investors hope.

Source: Carlyle Analysis; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. As of November 25, 2025.

Bonus Content

This link was incorrect last week, see here: Five reasons retail should be wary of private credit (especially retirement plans).

The US 250 Report ranks and analyzes the largest and most active private equity investors in the US. Link

Charles Schwab published The 2025 ETFs and Beyond Study. Link

J.P. Morgan’s EMEA Guide to the Markets is updated as of November 30, 2025. Link

The RIA Benchmarking Study provides information from 1,288 firms representing over $2.4 trillion in AUM. Link

Activate’s annual deck on the state of media and entertainment. Link

Investing in Farmland: Real Assets. Real Returns.

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Investments in private placements are illiquid, speculative, and may result in the complete loss of capital.  Securities offered through NCPS, member FINRA/SIPC.

Podcasts

12/4/2025 - 29 minutes

David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ Chief US Equity Strategist, discusses the recent equity market volatility, the AI trade, the opportunities for investors today, and lessons from his 31 year career (he’s retiring at the end of 2025).

12/5/2025 - 41 minutes

Bernstein and Draho exchange expectations for the market and macro environment in 2026 - including thoughts on the role of the Fed. They touch on portfolio positioning, profit cycle leadership, and inflation regime risks.

10/7/2025 - 76 minutes

Tony Godsick shares insights from representing Roger Federer, building Team8 Sports, and lessons learned from navigating athlete branding and partnerships. Note: start at 11:40.

What Else Is Happening

12/12/2025 - 46 minutes

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder discusses 2026 macro risks, fixed income opportunities, and positioning across equities and credit.